{"id":10604,"date":"2019-10-21T13:31:54","date_gmt":"2019-10-21T11:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechnews.org\/_\/?p=10604"},"modified":"2019-10-21T13:31:54","modified_gmt":"2019-10-21T11:31:54","slug":"not-time-to-write-libra-crypto-obituary-just-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechnews.org\/_\/not-time-to-write-libra-crypto-obituary-just-yet\/","title":{"rendered":"It\u2019s Not Time to Write Libra\u2019s Crypto Obituary Just Yet"},"content":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Michael J Casey<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the nation-state\u2019s demise are greatly exaggerated.<\/p>\n

The exits of Mastercard, Visa, Paypal and four other firms from the Libra consortium came after\u00a0France\u00a0<\/a>and\u00a0Germany<\/a>\u00a0moved to block the global \u201cstablecoin\u201d cryptocurrency project and after\u00a0U.S. lawmakers<\/a><\/u>\u00a0delivered stern warnings to Libra members.<\/strong> This was more than a major setback for Libra founder Facebook; it was also a reminder that government power remains unrivaled. Ten years into the bitcoin revolution,<\/a> it remains extremely difficult to challenge the state\u2019s monopoly over money.<\/p>\n

Yet Libra obituaries are way too premature. The Libra Association still got\u00a021 of its original 28 member entities to sign onto the currency-management consortium in Geneva last week<\/a>. And even if Libra doesn\u2019t survive, other, less controversial players than Facebook are hatching their own stablecoin plans. If those fail, well, we\u2019ll always have bitcoin.<\/strong><\/p>\n

That said, regulatory resistance is formidable. Last week, both the\u00a0Financial Action Task Force<\/a>\u00a0and the\u00a0Bank of International Settlements<\/a>, pronounced that stablecoins such as Libra pose a major threat to anti-money laundering (AML) efforts, financial stability and monetary competition. Meanwhile, some experts,\u00a0including former Commodities and Futures Trading Commission chief Gary Gensler,<\/a>\u00a0have argued that Libra should be regulated as a security.<\/p>\n

But none of that means stablecoins aren\u2019t destined for big things. The technology\u2019s ongoing momentum, coupled with geopolitical and global economic imperatives, suggests governments will ultimately have to embrace them or compete with them. As Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Rob Kaplan said last week, sooner or later\u00a0\u201csomebody\u2019s going to figure out how to do this.\u201d<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Libra has been a vital driver of that momentum, having spurred international debate on the topic and galvanized developer and business interest in tokenized money. In turn, it owes a debt of gratitude to bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, which offers an altogether entirely independent alternative to fiat currencies. Without bitcoin\u2019s success, none of this would be happening.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s just that when it specifically comes to stablecoins, whatever mainstream solution emerges from this chaotic early phase will require direct coordination with governments. (I\u2019m talking more of reserve-based stablecoins, whether basket-pegged cryptocurrencies like Libra or one-on-one offerings like USDC or Gemini dollar, not of smart contract-based, collateralized tokens like Dai.) Libra and its imitators will need to hold lengthy sit-downs with regulators, compromise on some elements of their design, and help the agencies get comfortable with those parts they can\u2019t change.<\/p>\n

The way forward<\/strong><\/h2>\n

First, all is definitely not lost for Libra.<\/p>\n

The Libra Association\u00a0has the blessing of Switzerland\u2019s Financial Market Supervisory Authority<\/a>\u00a0(FINMA), giving it a respected, regulated home base from which to develop the project. From herein, it will be deeply focused on regulatory compliance. While the association\u2019s resources and lobbying clout would have been greater with Mastercard and Visa onboard, its pockets are deep enough to fund ongoing, constructive negotiations with authorities in different countries.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even if Libra has to be rolled out piecemeal, with some countries\u2019 citizens gaining access and others not, increasingly sophisticated geofencing techniques should prevent those in less friendly jurisdictions from getting their hands on it. If it lowers cross-border transaction costs in those places and enables new forms of smart contract-based commerce, and\u00a0if it introduces new digital identity models<\/a>\u00a0to cheaply but securely include poorer people in finance, pressure will rise on the other countries to ease restrictions.<\/p>\n

Libra has some powerful advocates. One is Terry Gou, owner of electronics giant Foxconn, which has business relationships with tens of thousands of manufacturers worldwide. The one-time Taiwanese presidential candidate\u00a0recently called on his country to accept Libra<\/a>,<\/u>\u00a0arguing that it could be a bridge to China\u2019s forthcoming digital currency.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Although some developing countries, such as India, are hostile to Libra and other cryptocurrencies, others are aggressively pursuing them as solutions to their citizens\u2019 financial challenges. These include Caribbean countries, which suffer from costly cross-border transactions and \u201cde-risking\u201d by foreign banks for whom tighter U.S. compliance requirements have led them to curtail correspondent banking relationships with institutions in such countries.<\/p>\n

Bermuda recently said it will accept tax payments in the stablecoin USDC.\u00a0<\/a><\/u>And the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, which handles monetary policy for nine countries, is\u00a0experimenting with a blockchain-based central bank digital currency<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Caribbean is a much smaller fish than India, of course. But it punches way above its weight financially. Over the years the region\u2019s island nations have used tax breaks and other carrots to attract the world\u2019s biggest banks, insurance firms, mutual funds and hedge funds, which now collectively manage almost a $1 trillion in financial assets there. Also, its smaller population makes an ideal testing ground.<\/p>\n

Moreover, Libra may find support in the U.K., whose all-important banking industry sees fintech development as key to its post-Brexit survival.\u00a0When Governor Mark Carney said in<\/a>\u00a0June that the Bank of England planned to grant liquidity access to tech companies \u2013 a break with the tradition of bank-centric monetary management \u2013 it was Libra, which had only just gone public with its plan, that he had in mind.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The race to innovate<\/strong><\/h2>\n

If London strides ahead with stablecoin innovation, where does that leave other financial centers such as New York and Hong Kong? Many U.S. officials worry that financial innovators could abandon U.S. shores if Washington\u2019s stance is too hardline.<\/p>\n

Last week,\u00a0Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) wrote a supportive letter to Libra members<\/a><\/u>\u00a0in which he described the threatening missives that Senators Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio)\u00a0sent to Mastercard, Visa and Stripe<\/a>\u00a0as \u201cominous\u201d and warned of regulatory over-reach putting \u201ca chill on innovation\u201d in the U.S.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty will eventually pressure governments to seek alternatives to their current approach to money. China is developing its own digital fiat currency, which could give its economy trade advantages and reduce its dependence on dollars.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another challenge: as the global economy weakens, the burden of trillions of dollars in private and public debt will pose a troubling threat to Western economies, raising fears of a rush into dollars and a countervailing collapse in competing currencies. Speaking on the Hidden Forces podcast,\u00a0famed investment strategist Raoul Pal<\/a>\u00a0argued that a de-nationalized digital basket-based currency such as Libra might enable countries to avoid the harm of a currency war and continue trading with each other as they negotiate debt write-downs with their creditors.<\/p>\n

Libra successors?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Whether the answer lies in the basket-based solution, in one-on-one fiat currency-pegged tokens, or with direct central bank-issued digital currencies, Facebook and its fellow Libra members are far from the only major companies looking to cash in on the promise of stablecoins. Freed of Facebook\u2019s reputational baggage, these companies are betting that they\u2019re in a stronger position to negotiate with government authorities.<\/p>\n

One weighty player exploring a Libra-like project is retailing giant\u00a0Walmart<\/a>, the biggest employer in the U.S. and, like Foxconn, the central entity in a giant global supply chain. As for Mastercard, do not read its departure from Libra as a departure from cryptocurrency and blockchain development.\u00a0Having recently expanded its hiring of blockchain experts<\/a><\/u>, the card and payments network provider could be positioning itself as an important player in the nascent stablecoin industry \u2013 one with tight relationships with government figures around the world.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not that we don\u2019t think Libra has long-term value, or no longer has merit,\u201d said Vice President of Digital Solutions Jorn Lambert when I asked him to explain the 11th<\/sup>-hour departure from Libra. \u201cIt\u2019s that they were asking original founding members to become formal members inside a legal entity, at a time when the regulatory framework is very uncertain. We don\u2019t actually understand entirely the implications of membership. We want to wait for regulators to have clarified that framework before we take on this liability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lambert said that Mastercard\u2019s future steps will be shaped around a \u201cpublic-private partnership.\u201d He even envisaged a scenario in which central banks would mint and burn outgoing and incoming tokens while private firms with retail customer experience like Mastercard would handle distribution and customer protections.<\/p>\n

The very idea of a partnership with government will have a certain class of cryptocurrency advocates retching. But the good news for them is that this is not a zero-sum game. The creation of fiat-backed digital currencies will, I believe, elevate bitcoin\u2019s status beyond that of gold as the key uncorrelated safe haven for avoiding political risk.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s just that until native cryptocurrencies achieve their own internal stability, scalability and widespread adoption, an instantly scalable currency with a stable value is needed if the mainstream economy is to embrace programmable money. The lesson from Libra is that it also has to be government-friendly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By\u00a0Michael J Casey To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumors of the nation-state\u2019s demise are greatly exaggerated. The exits of Mastercard, Visa, Paypal and four other firms from the Libra consortium came after\u00a0France\u00a0and\u00a0Germany\u00a0moved to block the global \u201cstablecoin\u201d cryptocurrency project and after\u00a0U.S. lawmakers\u00a0delivered stern warnings to Libra members. This was more than a major setback for Libra […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[54,2,55,570],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10604","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-legal-tech","category-fintech","category-bitcoin","category-cryptocurrency"],"yoast_head":"\nIt\u2019s Not Time to Write Libra\u2019s Crypto Obituary Just Yet<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"It\u2019s just that until native cryptocurrencies achieve their own internal stability, scalability and widespread adoption, an instantly scalable currency with a stable value is needed if the mainstream economy is to embrace programmable money. The lesson from Libra is that it also has to be government-friendly.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.fintechnews.org\/_\/not-time-to-write-libra-crypto-obituary-just-yet\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"It\u2019s Not Time to Write Libra\u2019s Crypto Obituary Just Yet\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It\u2019s just that until native cryptocurrencies achieve their own internal stability, scalability and widespread adoption, an instantly scalable currency with a stable value is needed if the mainstream economy is to embrace programmable money. 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