Bitcoin’s not done yet: Here’s why it could soar into 2026

Key Takeaways:

• The 2024 halving triggered a major supply squeeze already visible in 2025.

• Institutional and government buyers are rapidly accumulating Bitcoin.

• Analysts suggest BTC could hit $250,000 by 2026 based on demand models.

As of June 24, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at $105,458, representing a modest 13% year-to-date gain. While that may seem underwhelming compared to the explosive growth of 2024, it stands in stark contrast to most major cryptocurrencies, which are down double digits this year. In a challenging market environment, Bitcoin is reinforcing its role as the dominant digital asset. And according to analysts, this steady resilience could be the precursor to a powerful surge, potentially pushing BTC toward $250,000 by 2026.

Here’s why the coming months could be the most transformative period yet for Bitcoin.

Post-Halving Scarcity Is Tightening Supply

The 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced the block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block, is already having a measurable impact on supply. Bitcoin’s daily issuance has dropped to 450 BTC, and this number will halve again in 2028. Historically, halving events create strong bullish cycles by constraining new supply while demand increases.

But the story doesn’t stop there. A large portion of Bitcoin is now entering what analysts call “ancient supply” coins that haven’t moved in more than a decade.

In 2025, this supply is increasing by 566 BTC per day, more than the daily issuance. If this continues, by 2028, over 20% of all Bitcoins may be effectively locked out of circulation.

This creates a classic economic pressure point: shrinking float and rising demand.

Institutional Interest and ETF Demand Are Exploding

Bitcoin’s entry into institutional finance is no longer speculative; it’s mainstream. The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. in late 2023 opened the floodgates. By mid-2025, these ETFs are absorbing over $200 million per day, outpacing the 450 BTC mined daily.

In parallel, public companies are rapidly integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets. MicroStrategy holds more than 1.3 million BTC, Tesla has over 43,000 BTC, and more firms are joining the trend. Mark-to-market accounting rules introduced in late 2024 now allow companies to reflect Bitcoin gains in real-time, making BTC holdings a revenue generator and a stock price booster.

This shift is transforming Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a strategic financial instrument.

Government and Sovereign Adoption Is Accelerating

While corporate adoption is surging, governments are also stepping in. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, announced in early 2025 under President Trump, marked a watershed moment in Bitcoin’s geopolitical evolution. Several U.S. states have since launched their reserves, and countries like Brazil are building sovereign BTC holdings to hedge against fiat instability.

The idea that national treasuries could begin competing for Bitcoin is not far-fetched. Analysts estimate that if even a handful of nations aim to hold 5 – 10% of the global supply, Bitcoin’s price could be pushed to new heights by sheer demand pressure.

Macro Conditions Are Turning Favorable

Bitcoin thrives in uncertain macroeconomic environments. As central banks, led by the U.S. Federal Reserve, begin to pivot toward looser monetary policy, investors are looking for assets that can protect long-term purchasing power. With fiat currencies under pressure from inflation and debt, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as “digital gold.”

Since 2024, capital has been rotating out of traditional safe havens like gold and into Bitcoin. Gold ETFs have seen $3.2 billion in outflows, while Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $208 million daily, reflecting a decisive shift in institutional asset allocation.

The Path to $250,000: Breaking Down the Numbers

Let’s look at the math behind the $250,000 projection:

• Current Supply (2025): 19.7 million BTC

• Estimated Supply (2026): 19.92 million BTC

• Adjusted Float (after long-term holding): 16 million BTC

• Projected Demand (2026): $1.8 trillion (based on 20% annual growth from 2024’s $1.2 trillion market cap)

Dividing expected demand by adjusted float gives us a base price of $112,500. Add in the possibility of sovereign wealth fund allocations and a continued shift from gold ETFs, and the case for $250,000 becomes not just plausible, but statistically grounded.

What to Watch in the Coming Months

Investors should keep an eye on three major catalysts:

• New U.S. crypto legislation, expected by late summer, will bring legal clarity to stablecoins and broader crypto markets.

• A major tech company, possibly from Silicon Valley, is expected to add Bitcoin to its reserves in Q4 2025.

• Sovereign accumulation, particularly from BRICS nations, may begin in earnest by early 2026.

These events could trigger the next bullish wave and pull fresh capital into the market.

Strategy for Investors

Given the macro and structural tailwinds, Bitcoin presents a strong asymmetric opportunity. Investors may consider:

• Portfolio Allocation: 5 – 10% of a diversified portfolio

• Entry Strategy: Dollar-cost averaging, especially during pullbacks below $110,000

• Holding Horizon: 3 – 5 years to capture post-halving momentum and ETF integration

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is no longer a fringe asset; it’s a centerpiece of modern financial strategy. With supply shrinking, institutional demand growing, and sovereign players entering the scene, the conditions are ripe for Bitcoin to make a historic move. If the stars align, the road to $250,000 by 2026 is not just hype; it’s a rational outcome in a new economic paradigm.