Source: Top 10 geopolitical developments in 2026 | EY – Global
The world is entering 2026 amid a period of heightened uncertainty. The disruptive forces of transformation are increasingly non-linear, accelerated, volatile and interconnected — what the EY organization calls the NAVI world.
There are multiple disruptive forces that executives should navigate, including technological innovation, demographic shifts and climate change. But arguably the most significant driver of the NAVI world in 2025 was geopolitics. We expect that to hold true in 2026 as well. Geopolitical developments will continue to reshape the global operating environment in profound ways. Looking across all of the expected changes, we identify three core themes that we expect will define the geopolitical environment in the year ahead. First, new rules and norms for doing business are expected to emerge — as old rules and norms are discarded. Policymakers will continue to deepen their efforts to direct economic activity, both within their borders and in terms of their cross-border economic relationships. This will be a continuation of the economic sovereignty trend in 2025, with the state playing a bigger role in markets. The degree to which this theme plays out will vary across sectors and countries, but one important through line that is expected is a focus on the artificial intelligence (AI) value chain and developing sovereign AI capabilities. Second, the geopolitics of scarcity will likely solidify. Geopolitical competition to control or access scarce resources will intensify in 2026, building on geo-energy, commodity competition and related developments in recent years (see figure 1 on page 2). Geopolitics of scarcity marks a fundamental shift from the post-Cold War era of geopolitics in which countries and companies optimized supply chains for cost and efficiency.
Now optimization is about geopolitical de-risking and resilience. To achieve those goals, governments and industries will likely compete for control of or access to critical minerals, fresh water and capital (among other things). The third theme is a recognition that there will be four key regions in which these geopolitical dynamics play out in 2026. We refer to this as spheres of engagement. Three of these regions are home to the world’s great powers — North America, Asia-Pacific and Europe. The fourth region is the Middle East. For both economic and security reasons, this is expected to be an arena in which great powers continue to compete for influence. There will be significant geopolitical developments in other regions as well, including at least seven national elections in Latin America and the rising geopolitical and geoeconomic importance of both Latin America and Africa as critical minerals producers, and in countries around the world, domestic resilience and legitimacy challenges may arise due to polarization, protests and misinformation. These three geopolitical themes will interact in various ways throughout the year. They will impact other trends that are unfolding around the world, with reverberating implications across geographies and sectors. For instance, energy supply — including both sources of energy and transmission infrastructure — will likely be high on the agenda for many companies and governments. Scarcity geopolitics will affect access to energy supplies as well as the cost of capital for the required capital expenditures associated with grid expansion.
In some markets, new rules and norms could emerge regarding the government’s role in acquiring and developing energy resources, as well as the speed and scope of the energy transition. Similarly, geopolitical developments are expected to affect international migration and talent. Lack of sufficient economic opportunities, intensifying climate challenges and the heightened level of violent conflict in many regions around the world could push more people to become international migrants. But migration will likely remain a divisive domestic political issue in many traditional host markets, as countries such as the US put in place more restrictive immigration systems. These dynamics could exacerbate sociopolitical instability and access to talent in some markets. There will be many underlying drivers of these and other developments, but the role of the US in reshaping the global operating environment in 2026 is expected to be highly significant. Under the current administration, rules and norms both within the US and in the broader global system are shifting rapidly. As China, the EU and other actors react and adapt to this new US posture throughout 2026, while continuing to shape their own agendas, the global operating environment will continue to evolve. This will pose both challenges and opportunities for organizations around the world, influencing how executives manage risks, govern their organizations and set strategy.
